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Let's presume Sir Keir Starmer wishes to win the next election. Let's also assume he has no desire to be replaced as Prime Minister in the next year approximately by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anybody else.
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He's a politician, after all, and political leaders enjoy power - Starmer more than many, I would believe. I also recommend that he's at least averagely smart, and need to have the ability to weigh up the opportunities of any policy prospering.
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After the struggles, compromises and [humiliations](https://protasaproperties.com) associated with accomplishing high workplace, Starmer has no intent of throwing all of it away. Why, then, does he reveal every sign of doing so?
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On the single issue that might matter most to a majority of citizens, he is hurtling towards specific disaster, while [denying](https://northwaveasia.com) himself any prospect of an escape path. I suggest the boats encountering the Channel.
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Numbers of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 percent on the same period in 2015. An analysis by The Times, using comparable modelling as Border Force, [forecasts](https://ethiopiarealty.com) that 50,000 people will cross the Channel in small boats in 2025. That would be an annual record - and a stonking fiasco for Sir Keir.
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Peering into his mind, I reckon there are two [primary](https://tuliaspaces.co.ke) possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is deluding himself. He truly believes numbers will boil down when the steps he has taken start to work.
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If Starmer still believes that his policies - tossing hundreds of millions at the French authorities, enhancing intelligence and using improved police powers - will reduce the numbers, that actually is the victory of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is currently starting poorly to realise that his stratagems won't bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have decided to pull the wool over our eyes. A fatal technique.
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There have been two such in current days. Having said in an online post on Monday that he felt 'upset' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he believe the rest of us feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.
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Sir Keir Starmer now has absolutely nothing formidable in his locker, Stephen Glover writes
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Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent fewer than in the previous year
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He boasted that 'practically 30,000 [people'](https://hotview.com) had actually been removed from the UK by this Government. Sounds excellent. But in fact this figure describes all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our country. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent fewer than in the previous year.
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A lie? Good God no! We should not accuse Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of [informing deliberate](https://property-northern-cyprus.com) fibs. Shall we choose a statistical sleight of hand?
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The other [instance](https://salensnekretnine.ba) of the Government not being entirely directly was the Home Office's claim earlier today that there have been more migrants this year due to the fact that of balmy weather. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.
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But an analysis by my colleague David Barrett in yesterday's Mail reveals that in temperate May in 2015 there were 21 'red days' however only 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 fewer than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though just 3,007 migrants were recorded crossing the Channel.
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The most probable description is that last May and June the Government's strategy to send out illegal migrants to Rwanda had lastly cleared relentless judicial obstruction. Some, a minimum of, were prevented from crossing the Channel for fear of being loaded off to the central African country.
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The [Rwanda plan](https://lucasluxurygroups.com) was far from perfect - it was expensive, and liable to legal challenge because the country has an authoritarian government - however at least it had some [possibility](http://campley.com) of discouraging migrants. The incoming Labour Government tossed away its only plausible means of curbing the boats.
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Good for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will carry out to [reanimate](https://bauerwohnen.com) a strategy strikingly similar to the Rwandan one.
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Starmer now has nothing powerful in his locker. Literally absolutely nothing. He can offer more millions to the French federal government however it won't make much, if any, distinction. French police will still loll around on beaches, thinking about the sand castles they made as children, as they view migrant boats setting off for Dover.
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The truth is that the French will never strain themselves because every migrant who leaves their shores is one less migrant for them to stress about. It is ignorant to envision that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.
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STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft male who can not understand the real wicked Britain is dealing with
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Nor will Sir Keir's concept of enhancing intelligence and law enforcement be decisive. As for Labour's reported intent to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to preclude bogus asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it becomes law it is not likely to have much result on total numbers.
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Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper [starting](https://venue.cadetlearning.com) to stress as they realise they don't have a single policy likely to fulfil their pledge of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well must be.
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Three weeks back, Sir Keir was [embarrassed](https://fapropertieslimited.com) after he had applauded talks over Rwanda-style 'return hubs' only minutes before his Albanian equivalent, standing a few feet away, ruled out any cooperation.
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Maybe the Government will persuade the Kosovans or the [North Macedonians](https://rentandgrab.in) to establish some sort of scheme. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and individuals will question why Sir Keir cancelled an arrangement that he is at least partly attempting to restore.
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I've no particular dream to throw Starmer a lifeline but, as I've suggested before, there's one possible course out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take massive determination and nerve for him to take it.
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There are numerous unoccupied British [islands](https://dreamriseproperties.in) off our coast and further afield. Pick among them. Create a camp similar to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees throughout the War. Build hundreds of huts - instead of erecting less durable camping tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.
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Recruit medical professionals and authorities to assess claims quicker than happens at present - and then return most migrants to where they originated from. The cost of setting up such a camp would be a fraction of the ₤ 4.3 billion spent in 2015 on housing migrants and asylum seekers.
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Can anyone inform me why not? Few migrants would elegant kicking their heels for months in a camp, however gentle, so it would be a marvellous deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our visitor - on a possibly windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.
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Granted, in order to fend off vexatious legal difficulties we 'd probably need to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be an action too far for our careful Prime Minister.
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But he does not have a better idea. In fact, he hasn't got any ideas at all that are accountable to stem the growing varieties of individuals streaming throughout the English Channel.
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Things can just become worse - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer truly wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?
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RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting
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